The United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009 in Copenhagen
Edited by Markus Götz, FutureCamp Climate GmbH
27 January 2010

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In December 2009, Climate Change took centre stage. Literally, the world was watching the gathering of 115 heads of state. Many of these had repeatedly declared their strong desire to achieve an ambitious, legally binding outcome of the Copenhagen Conference (COP). Despite the unprecedented political and public attention, the momentum could not be translated into a post-Kyoto agreement. In the end, a group of 26 heads of state came up with a short paper, the “Copenhagen Accord“, which the Conference of the Parties only “took note of“. Formally, it does not have the status of a decision that could provide further guidance in the process of building a post-2012 global climate change framework. The media and many activist groups described COP 15 as a “failure” and many politicians openly showed their disappointment.

How does the world look after COP 15? Was COP 15 the failure it has been criticised to be? What are the implications for current policies and mechanisms that had been established under the Kyoto Protocol? And which guidance does “Copenhagen” provide for the post-2012 world? What concrete conclusions can be drawn for companies that are involved in the carbon markets that make use of Kyoto’s flexible mechanisms CDM and JI? What strategic implications does COP 15 provide in specific sectors?

The world has become more complex after Copenhagen. The global climate change architecture is becoming more fragmented, with trends towards regionalization, nationalization and bilateralism. This makes it even more difficult for companies to make strategic decisions.

However, it would be a mistake to reduce attention on the post-Kyoto process now. COP 15 offers far more guidance regarding how a post-Kyoto global framework might look like in contrast to the first reactions the media had led one to expect. On the one hand, the Copenhagen Accord is much more substantial than a quick look might tell. Especially when read with profound knowledge of the entire negotiating process, the picture becomes much clearer in far more detail.

An agreement at COP 16 in Mexico is very likely to happen. It will be dependent on the concrete steps that states take to implement the provisions of the Copenhagen Accord. The first deadline is 31 January 2010. According to the Accord, states shall submit their emission reduction targets and actions by then. Along with these international developments come initiatives at other levels, e.g. national. The most important of these is US climate legislation. Its progress in the US Senate is crucial for COP 16. But Copenhagen showed that there are other important players in the game as well, such as China, Brazil and India. These countries are also currently undertaking important legislative steps - in the end, it is not that important whether these countries start acting on the grounds of climate policy or for other reasons, e.g. energy security.

A “Copenhagen-Mexico Agreement”, or however it might be called, has become far more actual than media reporting might let one assume. Although several “big issues” still stand in the way, considerable progress has been made in many fields – especially at the more technical levels that have direct implications for business.

Find out more about COP15 at: www.cop15.dk